Space Oddity? A Statistical Formulation of Conjunction Assessment

Satellite conjunctions involving “near misses” of space objects are becoming increasingly likely. One approach to risk analysis for them involves the computation collision probability, but this has been regarded as having some counterintuitive properties and its interpretation debated. This paper formulates an satellite conjunction based on a simple statistical model discusses inference miss distance between two objects, both when relative velocity can be taken known uncertainty must into account. It is pointed out that usual probability estimate badly biased, highly accurate possible. The ideas illustrated with case studies Monte Carlo results show excellent performance.